定量风险与 LOPA · 情景应用 | Quantitative Risk & LOPA · Scenario in Action

本课目标 | Learning objectives

1. 按三步走完一个场景，并说出每一步的依据
2. 区分「更有效」与「更先做」两类答案
3. 把结论写回自己的术语表

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场景走一遍 | Walk the scenario

反应釜场景：初始事件「冷却水中断」0.1/年，现有保护：①BPCS 温度控制（PFD 0.1，独立）；②高温报警+操作员手动停进料（报警挂在与 BPCS 相同的 DCS 上）；③机械安全阀。公司可容标准：该后果频率 ≤ 10⁻⁴/年。SIL2 联锁（PFD 0.01）报价 25 万元。

Reactor case: initiating event cooling-water loss at 0.1 per year; existing layers: BPCS temperature control (PFD 0.1, independent); high-temperature alarm with manual feed stop, but the alarm rides the same DCS as the BPCS; a mechanical relief valve. Tolerable criterion: 10⁻⁴ per year or less. A SIL2 trip (PFD 0.01) is quoted at 250,000 yuan.

1. 第一步：审独立性——报警+人工响应挂在 BPCS 同一 DCS：DCS 故障既可引发失控又是报警失效的原因，共因，不能计为 IPL。合格 IPL 只有 BPCS 控制（0.1）与机械安全阀（按 0.01 计） — Step 1 — audit independence: the alarm and manual stop ride the BPCS DCS, whose failure both starts the event and kills the alarm — common cause, so no IPL credit. The genuine layers are BPCS control (0.1) and the relief valve (0.01)
2. 第二步：算现状与缺口——后果频率 = 0.1 × 0.1 × 0.01 = 10⁻⁴/年，恰好压线达标，但没有任何裕量（安全阀检验周期、点火源波动都会击穿）。决策：目标留一个量级裕量 → 需要再加一道独立 SIF — Step 2 — compute and compare: 0.1 times 0.1 times 0.01 gives 10⁻⁴ per year, exactly at the line with zero margin — a relief-valve test slip or demand surge breaks it. To keep one order of margin you need one more independent SIF
3. 第三步：投资决策与财务核对——加 SIL2 联锁（PFD 0.01，与 DCS 独立硬接线）：频率降到 10⁻⁶/年，裕量两个量级；期望损失按单次事故 5000 万元计：改造前 10⁻⁴×5×10⁷=5000 元/年，改造后 500 元/年——单看年化买不起 25 万改造，但标准压线+共因风险+监管问责才是决定理由；同时核对保单：事故是否在承保范围、免赔额多少、SIL 改造是否影响费率 — Step 3 — invest and check the money: add the SIL2 trip, hardwired off the DCS; frequency drops to 10⁻⁶ per year with two orders of margin. With a single event costing 50 million yuan, expected loss is 5,000 yuan per year before and 500 after — annual savings alone never justify 250,000; the real case is the zero-margin line, the common cause, and regulatory accountability. Also align the policy: is the event covered, what is the deductible, does the retrofit move the premium

走完这三步再往下答题；答案不是背出来的，是按步骤推出来的。/ Work the three steps before answering — the answer is derived, not recalled.

情景自测 | Scenario check

考点应用Exam-point application

这道题考什么：考频率乘法与 IPL 计层。
Tests the multiplication and layer credit.

初始事件 0.1/年，两 IPL 的 PFD 各 0.1。后果频率是多少？

Initiating event 0.1 per year with two IPLs at PFD 0.1 each. Consequence frequency?

自编练习题，不是 BCSP 官方真题，也不能用来预测分数。 / Original practice item, not an official BCSP exam question.

动手练 | Practice

1. 为本厂一个超标场景写「缺口—方案—投资理由」一页纸。
Write a one-pager for an out-of-tolerance scenario: gap, options, investment case.

学习打卡与笔记 | Progress & notes

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可靠来源 | Official references

BCSP — CSP Examination Blueprint (CSP11)

BCSP — Official Self-Assessments

BCSP — Certified Safety Professional (CSP)

Pearson VUE — CSP 考试预约 / Scheduling

本课为一般性学习资料，不替代现场专业评估、法规要求或组织程序。/ Educational content only.